Brexit. It goes on and on, with no end in sight. The governments withdrawal agreement was rejected by Parliament yesterday, and by quite a substantial majority. Today there will be another vote, this one to remove the option of “No Deal”, which will no doubt be passed.
And then? Whilst the WA has been rejected there is no agreed consensus on what would be acceptable. It doesn't matter what concessions she might obtain from the EU, any WA will be rejected. Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, somewhere in between, there are not enough MPs in any of the competing camps to carry the vote. Apart from one option of course; to abandon Brexit.
With the No Deal option removed, and no possibility of agreement, it is likely Mrs May will ask the EU for an extension to Article 50, pushing back the date on which the UK leaves. Maybe it will be extended by weeks, perhaps even months, but I take the view that the longer the extension, the softer Brexit will become. Perhaps it will even be abandoned altogether.
Perhaps that was the plan all along, the Deep State ensuring the will of the people is thwarted. That would of course assume the powers that be know what they are doing, which seems a little unlikely to me.
And are they really going to let a deal slip through their fingers for the sake of the backstop?
Parliament has instructed Theresa May to go back to the EU and reopen negotiations on the Irish Backstop. The EU mandarins have already said the negotiations cannot be reopened.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out. If history tells us anything it's that the EU always say “it can't be done”, and then at the last minute decide it can. They might dress a deal up in all sorts of legalese, but essentially they will break their own rules if necessary.
And are they really going to let a deal slip through their fingers for the sake of the backstop? I have a suspicion they won't.
If the MPs can't decide then the only remaining option is to let the people decided
It was obvious Theresa May's Brexit Deal would be rejected by Parliament. It was the scale of the defeat that was remarkable. In normal times, having suffered such a loss the PM would resign. These though are not normal times.
Corbyn has tabled a motion of no confidence. Ironically the very MPs who helped vote the Brexit deal down will now express their confidence in Mrs May. Of course if they don't the Government could fall, there would then have to be a General Election, Corbyn could get his hands on the keys to number 10, and those MPs would be out of a job. I doubt those MPs have any confidence in the PM, their vote of support will represent nothing more than one of self interest.
I expect Mrs May will survive the vote of confidence, but then what? Parliament is in utter turmoil. There is no common consensus, no hint of a plan that the majority of MPs could agree on. And even if there was, would it be accepted by the EU? The EU have already made it quite clear they are not prepared to reopen the negotiations.
No deal is one option, but MPs are unlikely to agree to that for fear of the havoc that could unleash. An alternative is to cancel Brexit altogether, but MPs won't take that path as they would not want to be accused of ignoring the will of the people.
If the MPs can't decide then the only remaining option is to let the people decide. A Second Vote, giving the electorate the choice of
Leaving the EU on the terms negotiated by Mrs May, or
Cancelling Brexit and staying within the EU.
As someone who voted in 2016 to leave, I don't agree such a move would be undemocratic. Circumstances have changed since then and giving the people the chance to express their opinion, knowing what we know now would be entirely democratic.
The alternative is months if not years of continued uncertainty.
I have spent the last week reading opinions on the Brexit deal. The Prime Minister is unlikely to get the deal approved in Parliament, too many MP's are opposed to it. However, the Daily Mail reports today that the majority of the country think Parliament should accept it, believing that it is the best deal we are going to get.
I suspect the public are sick to the back teeth of the whole sorry mess, and just want it resolved, one way or the other. And it really is a mess. The government triggered Article 50 without having prepared, and seemingly with no clear idea about how they would achieve their goal. Indeed, I am not sure they knew what the goal was.
The EU are tough negotiators, and appear to have got what they wanted. As for the UK, Mrs May wants us to agree a plan whereby we must, for a period of time, continue to follow the EU rules but without any representation at the EU. We will remain in this situation until such time as a new trading agreement is decided. We cannot leave this arrangement without the agreement of all the EU member states. They would have the UK over a barrel, the EU would squeeze every last concession out of the UK before finally allowing us to leave.
The result? A democratic deficit and an inability to strike deals around the world for as long as the EU deem it. A bad deal really is worse than no deal.
Has this situation come about because of the utter incompetence of the government, or is it a prelude to the abandonment of Brexit?
I can't make up my mind. The government are it seems stock piling food and medicines just in case the UK leaves the EU without a deal. It's as if we are on a war footing, and it is to say the least very worrying.
What I can't decide is if this situation has come about because of the utter incompetence of the government, or whether it is a prelude to the abandonment of Brexit.
If it is the former, then would our government be any better than the EU? I voted to leave in part because it was apparent to me that the EU did not care about the wellbeing of the people of Europe. The European project would continue, regardless of the cost to the people. Now, it is becoming apparent that Brexit is likely to have a detrimental effect on the wealth and wellbeing of the people of this country. By pushing on with the project, and knowing the potential damage it could cause, is our government any better than the EU?
The other possibility is that what is happening now is a gradual application of pressure, a continuation of Project Fear, preparing the populace for the moment when the government says it is abandoning Brexit. With warnings of the potential for catastrophic economic damage growing ever louder, who but the most die hard of leavers would object if the government brought Brexit to a halt? Such a scenario has one flaw. It assumes the government know what they are doing.
Theresa May announces on Friday that her and her Cabinet have agreed a united approach to the Brexit negotiations. I couldn't help but wonder why they hadn't had that meeting when the referendum result was announced in 2016, why they didn't agree their strategy before entering into negotiations with the EU.
Now, the minister responsible for Brexit has resigned from the Cabinet. So much for a unified front. This government is an utter shambles, and any hope of obtaining a good exit agreement must now surely be lost.
How can EU non-Brits have confidence that their rights will be properly protected
The way the Windrush immigrants have been treated by the Government has been appalling. Their treatment must be of grave concern for EU citizens living in the UK, worried about how they will be treated post-Brexit.
Sajjad Karim, a Conservative MEP made this point when asking
If the British Home Office and our justice system have so demonstrably failed in protecting Windrush British citizens how can EU non-Brits have confidence that their rights will be properly protected? Frankly today they can't.
It beggars belief that anyone in Government could have thought an attempt to deport the Windrush Generation was the right thing to do. Morally, there can have been no justification for it.
So a deal has been reached on the first stage of the Brexit negotiations
So a deal has been reached on the first stage of the Brexit negotiations. I have yet to read the details of what has been agreed, but one wonders where the compromises have been made, whether the deal represents a compromise too far for the hard line Brexiteers. Time will no doubt tell...
the last few weeks simply highlight the fact that what we have politicians who are incompetent, vainglorious, self serving buffoons.
Boris Johnson utters some nonsense that could result in an innocent British citizen being held in an Iranian jail for another 5 years. Priti Patel holds high level meetings with the Israeli government without bothering to tell anyone of her plans. The Pestminster furore rumbles on and now there is outcry over the tax avoidance schemes of the rich and powerful. But where is the uproar about the greatest injustice of our time?
Ordinary working people continue to suffer the consequences of the financial crash, leaving those least able to do so to shoulder the financial burden. Ten years after the crash and the gap between average earnings and the tax avoiding super rich grows ever wider, pensions are worthless and housing is unaffordable.
With Brexit looming on the horizon there is a need for strong and competent leadership. Sadly the events of the last few weeks simply highlight the fact that what we have politicians who are incompetent, vainglorious, self serving buffoons. They stumble from one crisis to another, more concerned with winning elections and promoting their own careers than properly addressing the problems that confront us. The future looks bleak.
Iceland have more volcanoes than professional players. England were abject, I have never seen such an awful performance.
Last night England were knocked out of Euro 2016. Beaten 2-1 by Iceland. Iceland. A country of 300,000 with no professional teams. They have more volcanoes than professional players. England were abject, I have never seen such an awful performance.
After the match Roy Hodgson resigned. He would have been sacked anyway, so it was just as well he did so. He is an honourable man who made some appalling tactical decisions. A bit like David Cameron who resigned as the PM in the wake of the referendum. Another honourable man who made some poor tactical decisions.
In the days since the vote, I remain convinced the decision to leave was the right one. I had always thought the EU was a corrupt, self serving institution. It needs reform, but it was never likely to happen without a seismic event; Britain's decision to leave may prove to be that event. Juncker, the EU President is being blamed in part for the British decision. Some of the Eastern European members are questioning the direction the EU is taking and are even arguing the treaty that binds the members should be completely redrafted.
The ramifications of the vote will be quite profound.