The schools have to be fully opened soon if we are to avoid causing permanent damage to children's education, their mental health and their future opportunities.

It has become quite apparent that covid-19 is a disease that disproportionately affects the elderly. The British Medical Journal reports that 0.04% of 10-19 year olds would probably require hospital care, as would 1.0% of people in their 20s, 3.4% of people aged 30-39, 4.3% aged 40-49, 8.2% aged 50-59, 11.8% in their 60s, 16.6% in their 70s, and 18.4% of those over 80.

The risk to children dying from the condition is tiny; according to some analysts they are more likely to be struck by lightning. Equally, children do not seem to be super-spreaders. The Guardian reported that schools reopening in 22 European countries had not led to a significant increase in cases of covid-19. So why is there such a delay in the schools reopening in the UK?

A report in the Spectator explains that;

According to the Education Endowment Foundation, the damage inflicted on educational equality by closing schools has undone the work not of a term but of a decade.

The longer the schools remained closed the worse that differential will become.

There is also growing concern about the effects of the mental health of children arising from the lockdown. The Independent reported that Professor Tim Kendall, NHS England‘s National Clinical Director for Mental Health, told a Royal Society of Medicine webinar that “there's no doubt” children were being hit hard by the impact of the lockdown.

According to UNESCO

School closures carry high social and economic costs for people across communities. Their impact however is particularly severe for the most vulnerable and marginalized boys and girls and their families. The resulting disruptions exacerbate already existing disparities within the education system but also in other aspects of their lives.

It is children from disadvantaged backgrounds, be they black, white, Asian, et al, who will suffer the most the longer the schools remain closed.

The schools have to be fully opened soon if we are to avoid causing permanent damage to children's education, their mental health and their future opportunities.

18th June 2020

#coronavirus #education

Looking for their own personal Durham

The roads are solid. Trying to get to the local shop involves crossing the motorway. Coast bound, the traffic has ground to a halt. Cars trying to avoid the hold up are diverting onto the local roads, causing chaos. It is like a regular Bank Holiday. You wouldn't think the lockdown is still in place.

The Cummings effect there for all to see, everyone is looking for their own personal Durham.

2nd June 2020

#coronavirus

There is no nuance, there is no attempt to understand, there is no tolerance

A subject I will no doubt be referring to a lot over the next few weeks is the book I am currently reading, The Coddling of the American Mind by Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff. One paragraph struck a chord with me;

By shielding children from every possible risk we may lead them to react with exaggerated fear to situations that aren't risky at all and isolate them from the adult skills that they will one day have to master.

Primary schools have today reopened to Years 1 and 6, but according to a survey by the National Foundation for Educational Research, as many as 50% of parents will not be allowing their children to attend.

With reference to the above quotation, I am not suggesting there is no risk associated with reopening the schools, but the risk of young children contracting covid-19 is tiny, and the risk of serious ill health amongst those children is vanishingly small. I worry that the exaggerated fear prevalent amongst some parents will do little to help their children learn about risk and how to cope with it when they are themselves adults.

Of course, my opinion is one amongst many, and the parents concerned will do what they believe is right for their children. I wonder how many people with contrary opinions will however be outraged!!! by my comments? Quite a few I imagine, it is after all the norm these days. I can't remember where I read it, but at the beginning of the current crisis there was some hope that the nation would come together, that the collective response would help heal the rift caused by Brexit. For a while, there was some unanimity, but not now. The country is again split, with neither side prepared to accept that although the other may have different opinions on how problems should be solved, we all have the best interests of our society at heart. You're either with me or you're against me is the mantra by which many live their lives these days. There is no nuance, there is no attempt to understand, there is no tolerance.

Sadly I can't see that situation changing any time soon.

1st June 2020

#brexit #coronavirus #education

The cognitive distortion we see in relation to covid-19 has led to levels of anxiety out of all proportion to the risk.

I have just begun reading The Coddling of the American Mind by Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff. The book explains that Mr Lukianoff has suffered with periods of depression, and undertook Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) in a bid to deal with the problem. One of the most important subjects discussed as part of the therapy is that of catastrophising. The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines catastrophising in the following way;

To imagine the worst possible outcome of an action or event: to think about a situation or event as being a catastrophe or having a potentially catastrophic outcome

What CBT teaches is that the worst outcome is not the only or most likely outcome, and that one should try to think more rationally about any given issue and to consider the alternatives. To avoid catastrophising can help us deal with depression and anxiety.

In their book, Haidt and Lukianoff explain that they have noted how some students react to speeches on campuses exhibited exactly the same distortions that CBT teaches us to avoid, and question whether these cognitive distortions make students more anxious and depressed. I suspect we are seeing much the same cognitive distortions in response to covid-19 in the UK.

Covid-19 was an unknown quantity when it reached our shores. Now however, data is coming from around the world and the manner in which it spreads and who it affects is better understood. For example, the BBC reported on 20th May, that 3 children under 15 have died with covid-19. That was 0.01% of total deaths at the time. People aged aged 15-44 accounted for 1% of deaths.

The World Health Organization (WHO) chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan says that children are “less capable” of spreading the virus, and are at “very low risk” of getting ill from the disease. “What we have seen in countries where schools have remained open is that there have not been big outbreaks in schools.”

The risk to the children is incredibly small, the risk to their teachers is “very low”. Yet still some councils will not allow their schools to open next Monday, while some parents say they will refuse to send their children to school until a vaccine is found. I am a father and I understand the need to protects ones family, but catastrophising has replaced rational thinking. The cognitive distortion we see in relation to covid-19 has led to levels of anxiety out of all proportion to the risk. The upshot, and the far more likely outcome for some children, will be lasting damage to their education and future prospects.

According to UNESCO;

School closures carry high social and economic costs for people across communities. Their impact however is particularly severe for the most vulnerable and marginalized boys and girls and their families. The resulting disruptions exacerbate already existing disparities within the education system but also in other aspects of their lives.

Meanwhile in this week's Spectator it is reported that Norway’s Government has calculated the harm inflicted by school closures, showing that every week out of the classroom stunts life chances and permanently lowers salaries.

It is the already disadvantaged children who will suffer most if the schools remain closed.

29th May 2020

#coronavirus #education

Why do conspiracy theories circulate so widely, why does it appear so many believe them to be true? And then I remembered Arthur C Clarke's Third Law

Today I stumbled across another post on Twitter suggesting that the coronavirus is in fact spread by 5G technology. Another said that in November 2019 Wuhan was the first city to roll out 5G, and lo and behold two months later, the virus struck. There had to be a connection!! I went further down the rabbit hole; another post said that the virus was purposely released into the world, and when we receive the vaccine a small electronic chip will be injected into each of us, allowing governments to track our every movement. Meanwhile, the Canberra Times reported that one-in-eight Australians believe the virus is spread by 5G. Lord help us.

Sadly for the conspiracy theorists, there is no Bond-style villain orchestrating their dastardly plan from a secret lair. Indeed, if the UK government is a part of the master plan, they are making a right bloody mess of it; they can't even get their world beating track and trace app up and running!

Joking aside, why do these conspiracy theories circulate so widely, why does it appear so many believe them to be true? And then I remembered Arthur C Clarke's Third Law;

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic

I remember my grandad used to like building crystal radio sets. He understood why they worked. He would know which components to use, and how to connect one to another. If anything went wrong, he would know how to fix the problem. The same is not true with mobile telephones. The majority of people don't know why or how a mobile works, and the technical wizardry utilised might just as well be magic.

Might this ignorance of technology and how it works explain why there are so many who are prepared to swallow these ridiculous theories? Or maybe I am over complicating matters, and I will just have to accept there are a lot of very gullible people in the world.

27th May 2020

#coronavirus

Was his decision to travel to Durham a genuine error of judgement or did it amount to hubris?

I cannot believe that someone as politically astute as Dominic Cummings would not have known the reaction that was likely to greet news that he had broken the lockdown regulations. Was his decision to travel to Durham a genuine error of judgement or did it amount to hubris?

No doubt your answer will be influenced by your opinion of the man and your political leanings. Whatever your views, the government's decision to support him has undermined their message; for many, following the rules is now a matter of choice rather than necessity.

The governments plans for an orderly relaxation of the lockdown is likely to have been badly damaged by this episode.

Hubris: a personality quality of extreme or foolish pride or dangerous overconfidence, often in combination with arrogance.

26th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

Now, when failing to abide by the restrictions, one need only quote Mr Johnson, and claim “I was simply following my instincts”

After it emerged that his Chief Advisor, Dominic Cummings had apparently broken the lockdown rules shortly after the restrictions had been implemented, Boris Johnson yesterday made the following statement;

I have had extensive face-to-face conversations with Dominic Cummings and I have concluded that in travelling to find the right kind of childcare, at the moment when both he and his wife were about to be incapacitated by coronavirus – and when he had no alternative – I think he followed the instincts of every father and every parent. And I do not mark him down for that.

The government has never got to grips with this crisis. I accept that when dealing with an unknown quantity such as covid-19, difficult decisions have to be made, and mistakes will occur. However, in such uncertain times what one needs is strong and clear leadership, and in the UK that has been sorely lacking. In trying to defend his closest advisor, Johnson has effectively re-written the rules for lockdown. Now, when failing to abide by the restrictions, one need only quote Mr Johnson, and claim “I was simply following my instincts”.

The consequence is that the lockdown may soon collapse as people shrug their shoulders and ask “what's the point?”.

25th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

What we have seen in countries where schools have remained open is that there have not been big outbreaks in schools

Here in the UK the government had wanted primary schools to re-open on the 1st June. There was immediate push back from the teacher's unions, their position receiving support from the chair of the British Medical Association, Chaand Nagpaul.

On the 15th May Mr Nagpaul said in a letter to the National Education Union there was conflicting evidence from scientific studies on the effect of reopening schools, citing the “relatively small amount of research available and the uncharted territory we find ourselves in”. He said “until we have got case numbers much lower, we should not consider reopening schools.”

In an article produced by the BBC on 20th May, it was reported that in the UK, 0.01% of deaths were people under 15, 1% were aged 15-44 and about 75% were over 75. Put another way, 3 children under 15 had died with covid-19. The BBC article goes on to report “the role of children in transmission is unclear, but consistent evidence is demonstrating a lower likelihood of acquiring infection, and lower rates of children bringing infections into households.”

The World Health Organization (WHO) chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan says that children are “less capable” of spreading the virus, and are at “very low risk” of getting ill from the disease. “What we have seen in countries where schools have remained open is that there have not been big outbreaks in schools.”

The British Medical Association has since softened its stance, and on 19th May said schools can reopen on 1st June, or earlier, as long as it is “safe to do so”. The BMA accept there is “growing evidence that the risk to individual children from Covid-19 is extremely small.”

With schools closed, parents have been asked to home school their children. Home schooling is possible if one has access to a computer and the Internet, but can it work if there is only one Internet capable device in the home and the parents are having to use it to work from home? A survey conducted by the Office for National Statistics in 2018 found 12% of students between the ages of 11 and 18, a total of about 700,000, had no internet access from computers or tablets. The survey reported another 60,000 students said they had no home internet access at all. The ONS comments that;

Of those in this age group, 68% who did have home internet access reported that they would find it difficult to complete school work without it, suggesting that there may be educational implications for those without internet access.

An American publication, Education Next has considered the effect of school closures on children's education. They cite the example of teacher strikes which closed French Belgian schools for more than two months in 1990. Students affected by the strike “were more likely to repeat a grade and did not advance as far in higher education as similar Flemish-speaking students whose teachers did not strike”.

Inevitably, it will be children from disadvantaged backgrounds, whose parents cannot afford home computers, who will be unable to access on-line schooling during the lockdown and whose education will suffer more than their middle class contemporaries.

This morning it was reported that a group of independent scientists (calling themselves the Independent Sage committee and chaired by former chief scientific adviser Sir David King) had produced modeling which apparently shows delaying school opening by another two weeks will half the risks to children from the virus.

The question I am left asking is whether halving what is already a tiny risk is worth the additional damage to the children's education and their future prospects?

21st May 2020

#coronavirus #education

The country is about to be hit by “a severe recession, the likes of which we haven't seen”

The Telegraph reports today that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee that the country is about to be hit by “a severe recession, the likes of which we haven't seen”. He spoke of the damage long term unemployment can have on health; according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a 2% fall in in employment could lead to a million more with chronic health problems.

The coming economic crisis could prove to be more damaging to health and wealth than covid-19. Can the country afford stay in lockdown for very much longer?

20th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

Total number of excess deaths in the UK was over 53,000 in early May

Referring to my previous post, Rabbit in the Headlights, the Office for National Statistics had reported that the total number of excess deaths in the UK was over 53,000 in early May. Covid-19 was responsible for 37,187 or 75% of those excess deaths.

What of the 25% not connected to covid-19? What was the cause of their deaths? Does this number include people whose treatment was delayed because the NHS was under orders to prepare for the coronavirus? Are they what the military might call collateral damage?

19th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics