The country is about to be hit by “a severe recession, the likes of which we haven't seen”

The Telegraph reports today that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee that the country is about to be hit by “a severe recession, the likes of which we haven't seen”. He spoke of the damage long term unemployment can have on health; according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a 2% fall in in employment could lead to a million more with chronic health problems.

The coming economic crisis could prove to be more damaging to health and wealth than covid-19. Can the country afford stay in lockdown for very much longer?

20th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

Total number of excess deaths in the UK was over 53,000 in early May

Referring to my previous post, Rabbit in the Headlights, the Office for National Statistics had reported that the total number of excess deaths in the UK was over 53,000 in early May. Covid-19 was responsible for 37,187 or 75% of those excess deaths.

What of the 25% not connected to covid-19? What was the cause of their deaths? Does this number include people whose treatment was delayed because the NHS was under orders to prepare for the coronavirus? Are they what the military might call collateral damage?

19th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

This country needs is strong leadership and a clear message

According to data released by the Office for National Statistics the total number of excess deaths in the UK was over 53,000 in early May. Covid-19 was responsible for 37,187 (75%) of those excess deaths. For families who have lost a loved one, this is a terrible time, but we need to put the figures into context.

By way of comparison, according to the World Health Organisation a total of 1,500,000 people died from tuberculosis in 2018. An estimated 10,000,000 people fell ill with the condition worldwide. The disease affects men, women and children of all ages. However, because over 95% of cases and deaths are in developing countries, here in the UK one rarely hears about it.

Despite those extraordinary figures, the world economy does not shut down, airlines are not grounded, people continue to get on with their lives.

Professor Karol Sikora, a former advisor to the World Health Organisation, is quoted in todays Telegraph as saying he thinks the stay at home message has been too effective. He says “everybody is just too scared to move”. He believes the Government's message should be “go out and live your life”, that risk is “inevitable” and cannot be eliminated. To further quote the good Professor;

I look at Boris Johnson and he looks like a rabbit in headlights.

What this country needs is strong leadership and a clear message; at the moment we are getting neither. The Government needs to be honest with the country, to explain the risks and how how we might deal with them, but also the need for us to leave our homes and live. It is a bridge we will have to cross at some time, so why not now, before the economy is utterly shattered?

19th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

The Government has announced a vaccine for nearly half of Britons could be available by September

This morning's headlines proclaim;

Vaccine for 30 million could be here by autumn

The Government has announced a vaccine for nearly half of Britons could be available by September. There is though one small caveat; it is dependent on successful trials of the vaccine. Bearing in mind the pharmaceutical companies have never been able to produce a successful coronavirus vaccine in the past, isn't the Government being overly optimistic?

The Government was not able to meet its target of 100,000 covid-19 tests per day by the end of April. Is this latest announcement just more pie-in-the-sky nonsense designed to take our minds off the more pressing concerns of schools reopening and deaths in the care homes?

For those of you not of this manor, pie in the sky is defined by the Cambridge English Dictionary as;

Something that you hope will happen but is very unlikely to happen

18th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

It was announced the economy contracted by 2% in the first quarter of this year

It was announced the economy contracted by 2% in the first quarter of this year, and by 5.8% in March alone.

The Treasury is estimating that the cost of the coronavirus to the country will be £300bn this year, leaving the economy in the worst position since the Second World War.

And yet still some question why the government is asking us to go back to work, especially as there has been no appreciable reduction in the threat posed by the virus. Surely, they ask, people's health should come before the economy? Why put wealth before health?

The situation is not simply about the wealth of the nation. The country is heading into recession. A deep recession will leave millions on the dole, leading to a growing number of people falling into poverty. This in turn will have an adverse effect on physical and mental health, the consequences of which may be worse than the virus. Rising unemployment would also inevitably lead to falling tax revenues, meaning less money available to fund the NHS or the ongoing research into a vaccine.

The virus will be in our midst for months to come and we will have to adapt the way we live and work until or if a vaccine is found. The lockdown has given the NHS the time it needed to prepare. The doctors, nurses and numerous front line staff have shouldered the burden to date. It is time for the rest of us to share that burden, and work to ensure the ongoing health of the nation.

13th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

For us to successfully negotiate the exit from lockdown, the message has to be clear and consistent

Much of the guidance contained within the government's 50-page document makes sense, and it is a welcome first step out of lockdown. However the presentation of it has been woeful. The delay between the PM's speech and the release of the document created uncertainty, the problem compounded by confused and contradictory statements made by the government ministers.

If the ministers do not properly understand what is required, what we should and shouldn't do, what hope for the rest of us? For us to successfully negotiate the exit from lockdown, the message has to be clear and consistent.

12th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

The Prime Minister's speech to the nation last night has left most people confused and uncertain

The Prime Minister's speech to the nation last night has left most people confused and uncertain. It is not at all clear what we can and can't do, although we are told more details can be expected this afternoon. Wouldn't it have made sense to have provided the details during last night's speech?

What Boris did seem to recognise is that failures to conduct enough tests or to provide NHS staff with sufficient PPE has hindered efforts to combat the virus.

We still have no clear idea how we will exit the lockdown; I am not at all sure if Boris has any idea either.

11th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

It is expected that tomorrow the government will announce a slight easing of the restrictions. Some have greeted the prospect with hysteria

The Office of National Statistics has, at the time of writing, recorded 33,021 people dying with covid-19 in the UK. What is not clear is how many of those 33,021 would have died this year anyway. To what extent has covid-19 actually increased the expected number of deaths?

It is expected that tomorrow the government will announce a slight easing of the restrictions. Some have greeted the prospect with hysteria. The stay home, stay safe mantra has certainly worked very well, probably too well, and for some the idea of venturing out terrifies them. We all need to take a moment to step back and consider the facts.

Useful data has been produced by Statista, which has collated details of covid related deaths by country per million inhabitants. As with all statistics one needs to approach the data with caution. To quote Statista;

This table aims to provide a complete picture on the topic, but it very much relies on data that has become more difficult to compare. As the coronavirus pandemic developed across the world, countries already used different methods to count fatalities, and they sometimes changed them during the course of the pandemic.

However, the UK is fourth on that table, with 460.45 deaths per million, a tiny proportion of the population. Contrast that with Sweden, lying 3 places below the UK in seventh. Sweden has been the exception in Europe and has not imposed anything like the drastic restrictions seen in the UK, and yet their death rate is 298.53 per million.

Why is it that Sweden, with its relaxed approach, has seen fewer deaths than the UK, Spain and Italy, where the populace in each of those countries was ordered to stay at home? Do the statistics suggest the lockdown has been a complete waste of time? Is the government propelling the economy into the worst depression for 300 years for no good reason?

We have to hope that when Boris Johnson speaks tomorrow he explains the thinking behind the decision to extend the lockdown, and why he thinks covid-19 remains a greater threat to the well being of country than the destruction of the economy.

8th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

The bigger problem is the looming economic crisis

Neil Ferguson, the scientist behind the government’s decision to impose the lockdown, has resigned. It seems he has met with his lover on a number of occasions, ignoring his own advice to maintain social distance. He had little option but to stand down.

Meanwhile, the number of people dying with covid-19 has passed the 30,000 mark; the UK’s covid related death rate is now apparently second only to the United States. The media has gone into a frenzy, demanding to know why the figure is so high. What they don't appear to be asking is just how accurate are the figures produced by other countries? Can they be believed? What about other factors, such as population density, the average age and general health of the population pre-covid, whether the same strain of the virus is present in each country?

Mistakes have been made, but now is not the time to begin the inquest. That can wait; the bigger problem, and one which will crash down on society soon is the looming economic crisis. It is out of site, but is just over the horizon. It is coming. The government must concentrate on getting the country back to work before too many more businesses collapse and before we tip into the deepest of recessions.

6th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics

The longer the lockdown continues the worse will be the impact on the economy and society

The government will be making an announcement on Sunday, explaining their plans for easing the lockdown. Ahead of the announcement debates are raging in the media about whether now is the right time to ease the restrictions, what precautions should be taken, whether particular groups within society should continue to isolate.

The scientists are still unsure about how the virus spreads and what precautions are actually effective. What is clear however is that the longer the lockdown continues the worse will be the impact on the economy and society, on the general well being of us all. We have to get the country working again. If we don't, how many will lose their jobs? What will be the effect on the health of those suffering poverty and the lowering of living standards?

The lockdown has to end soon.

5th May 2020

#coronavirus #politics